The Political Sociology of Voting Participation in Southern Africa: A Multilevel Study of Regional and Social Class Predictors in 11 Countries

Abstract

Voting participation constitutes and legitimatizes electoral democracy. However, research has been unable to predict and explain the lack of participation across political contexts. The present study aims to predict voting participation based on regional predictors using 11 countries from the Afrobarometer (2019). For the analysis, the study uses modern measurement models and Bayesian multilevel logit models (binary and categorical). The regional analysis suggests that a greater frequency of experiencing bribery predicts lower voting probabilities. Regions with citizens who are more highly educated predict lower voting probabilities for deciding not to vote. Regions with higher levels of skilled craft workers predict lower voting probabilities. Compared to those in the lower occupational social class, citizens in the higher occupational social class have a lower voting probability. The study concludes by offering implications for the relational approach to contentious politics and democratization.