The Political Economy of the Philippines and Its Development Strategy under China-USA Power Rivalry and Hegemonic Competition: Hedge with Balance

Abstract

The competition between the United States and China has intensified since the Trump administration, and the two sides have clashed in the areas such as the economy, military, politics, technology, and human rights. This conflict presents countries in the Indo-Pacific region with the challenge of navigating foreign policy with these two hegemonic powers. The Philippines is one such country facing the challenge of maintaining a balanced relationship with the two countries as a major concern for a strategic triangle. The incumbent Philippine president must calculate the benefits and risks before formulating policies. Facing such a dilemma, former President Aquino chose to file a lawsuit with the International Arbitration Court and strengthen cooperation with the United States to defend the sovereignty of the Philippines in the SCS, whereas former President Duterte chose to shelve the sovereignty of the SCS and to cooperate with China under the framework of the BRI. However, President Duterte quickly changed his anti-United States stance in the climate of the ongoing conflict between the Philippines and China over islands and reefs in the SCS and then cooperated with the United States to reinstate the military cooperation agreement that he had suspended. Current President Marcos Jr. has adopted a more subtle approach. He declared that he would maintain economic cooperation with China and, at the same time, would strengthen bilateral cooperation with the United States, thereby attempting to maintain a balanced relationship with the two countries. In sum, the Philippines has adopted a dynamic balancing strategy to defend its national interests in the face of the strategic competition between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific region.