The Political Economy of Revenue Extraction in the Modern State: A Time-Series Analysis of U.S. Income Taxes, 1916-1986

Abstract

This research examines individual and corporate income tax rates in order to identify the political and economic conditions that affect the rate of revenue extraction in the modern state. Specifically, it employs multivariate time-series analysis to study the average effective income tax rates paid by both individuals and corporations in the U.S. from 1916 to 1986. The results reveal that individual income tax rates and corporate income tax rates are affected by many of the same variables. Indeed, both state-centered and society-centered variables influence the rate of revenue extraction, but societal-level variables are generally more important than organizational-level variables. In particular, macroeconomic conditions, state imperatives, and class organization affect the rate of revenue extraction, but political organization generally does not. Although individual income tax rates and, to a lesser extent, corporate income tax rates are relatively stable over time, both federal income taxes were altered dramatically as a result of World War II, indicating a tendency toward “punctuated equilibrium.”