The Political Economy of Pandemics’ Influence On Hegemonic Shifts: A Comparison of the Influenza of 1918 and COVID-19

Abstract

Following the World Health Organization (WHO)'s declaration of ending the public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) for the COVID-19 pandemic in May 2023, this study seizes the opportune moment to analyze it alongside its historical precedent, the Influenza of 1918, commonly known as the Spanish flu. Amid the ongoing US-China rivalry for global leadership, the COVID-19 pandemic broke out when a century had elapsed since the Influenza of 1918. This analysis aims to test the hegemonic cycles approach of the World Systems Theory and to contribute to the literature of international political economy. The hegemonic cycles approach of the World Systems Theory calls for an analysis of the figures of industrial production, international trade, and finance to judge the changes within the international economy as a hegemonic shift, which occurs at 100-150 years in a circular nature. This study furthermore adds up the figures of GDP per capita to the analysis to provide insight into the level of welfare offered by the ascending hegemons to their citizens vis-à-vis the descending ones. Thus, changes in GDP per capita, industrial production, foreign trade, and finances of the UK vs. the US during the Influenza of 1918, and the US vs. China during COVID-19 provide insights into the political economy of pandemics in terms of their impact on changing hegemonic orders. The findings reveal that both pandemics triggered a period of hegemonic shift that was preeminent on economic terms within the international order.