The Political Dimensions of Anti-Asian American Sentiment: Evidence from the 2016 and 2020 American National Election Studies Panel

Abstract

A spate of anti-Asian discrimination, violence, and hate crimes in the United States since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic spurred the passage of the COVID-19 Hate Crimes Act of 2021. These anti-Asian incidents took place during a fractious politicized context characterized by partisan rhetoric blaming China for the pandemic amidst an ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Given the involvement of political leaders in publicly invoking competition and threat, the present study examines anti-Asian American affect using group position theory, which highlights the important role that spokespeople from the dominant group can play in shaping emotions about subordinate groups. Analyzing the American National Election Studies 2016-2020 panel data (N=1211), the results of OLS regressions reveal that among white respondents, perceived China threat is associated with colder feelings towards Asian Americans in 2020, net of feelings towards Asian Americans in 2016. Moreover, warmer feelings towards Donald Trump in 2016 mediates the association between perceived China threat and anti-Asian American emotion, net of various controls, among white respondents. Notably, this pattern of results does not hold for non-white respondents. The results appear to support group position theory’s predictions regarding the influence of political leaders and the media on the dominant group’s feelings towards a subordinate group such as Asian Americans. Future research should explore these dynamics more fully as well as account for the different effects found among non-whites.