The political cycle in a transitional society: The case of Georgia

Abstract

Observing the cyclical nature of economics and politics, popular in the early 20 th century, is regaining popularity. We consider the cyclic pattern of the political process in the post-Soviet Republic of Georgia, focusing our attention on the gradual change in dynamics and the specifi c pattern of political cyclicity in a transitional society. The main finding is that at the early stage of transition the cycle is more uneven and tends to reveal itself in civil unrest and is not coupled with electoral cyclicity, even if unrest may sometimes be prompted by an electoral event (as in the case of the Rose Revolution of 2003). We argue that in hybrid regimes like Georgia the nature of the political cycle subsequently changes with the gradual consolidation of democracy and strengthening of democratic institutions, while civil unrest is replaced by evolutionary rather than revolutionary processes.