Abstract
Power systems can be analyzed using either a deterministic or a probabilistic approach. The deterministic analysis centers on studying the quantities and indicators that characterize the operating states of the power system under strictly defined conditions. However, the long-term horizon of planning analyses, the changes of marketing mechanisms, the development of renewable electricity sources, the leaving from large-scale generation, the growth of smart technology and the increase in consumer awareness make the development of transmission networks a non-deterministic problem. In this article, we propose a planning procedure that takes the probabilistic elements into account. This procedure was developed to take into account the high variability of power flows caused by the generation of renewable sources and international exchange. Such conditions of the power system operation forced a departure from deterministic planning. The new probabilistic approach uses the existing tools and experience gained during subsequent development projects. As part of the probabilistic approach, simulations were carried out using the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Two Point Estimation Method algorithms. These methods effectively reduce the computation time and, at the same time, give satisfactory results. The verification was carried out on a test grid model developed in accordance with the technical standards used in the Polish Power System. Effects were assessed using a deterministic and probabilistic approach. This analysis confirmed the practical possibility of using the probabilistic approach in planning the development of transmission network in Poland. When using a probabilistic approach to predict power flow, the criteria of technical acceptability for a given development variant and the manner in which the strategy is determined are of particular importance.
Highlights
Increasing the effectiveness of the grid development, including the transparency of the actions taken, the TSO developed a consultation process for the proposed actions in which all Polish Power System (PPS) users participate in this process
It is proposed to account for the uncertainty in the planning process, which is implemented as part of the probabilistic approach to planning the development of the Polish Power System
Elements related to the generation adequacy assessment and the branch loads and, as a result, the investment needs of the transmission network are considered
Summary
Transmission expansion planning (TEP) is a process that leads to the determination of a time-task schedule for implementing activities in the network [1]. The transmission network should be characterized by an appropriate structure and parameters that account for the commercial transactions and energy transmission requirements that exist due to the producer-consumer relationship. This process is carried out in an environment that considers both the supply and demand sides, as well as the economic and socio-political conditions. Use statistical data of failures Reduce the risk of missed investments. Reduction of computational costs by introducing clusters that group data from time series. Use of time series Modeling future market conditions Stochastic elements of balance in clusters The availability of conventional sources Calculations in emergency conditions Stochastic and random elements of balance in clusters Branch loads
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