The policy effects of demand-pull and technology-push on the diffusion of wind power: A scenario analysis based on system dynamics approach

Abstract

With the support of incentive policies, the diffusion of wind power has achieved tremendous achievements in China. However, behind this rapid expansion, it is raised a question: what are the driving forces behind the diffusion of wind power? And which policies are more efficient to improve the diffusion rate of wind power? To scientifically answer this question, this paper combines system dynamics and the two-factor learning curve to investigate the dynamic diffusion process of wind power. The results show that: (1) The demand-pull policy through feed-in tariff (FIT) policy can promote the diffusion of wind power; (2) The technology-push policy through R&D policy also promotes the diffusion of wind power; (3) A higher level of FIT is more efficient to expand the installed capacity of wind power, in addition, a higher level of R&D intensity is more efficient for cost reduction; (4) The coefficient of learning by doing of wind power is 0.0274 and the coefficient of learning by research of wind power is 0.2540, which indicates China's wind power industry is transitioning from price subsidies to technology innovation policies. The research results can enrich the research on the diffusion of wind power and provide a reference for other regions to study the diffusion of renewable energy.