The Polar Stratosphere as an Arbiter of the Projected Tropical Versus Polar Tug of War

Abstract

AbstractThis study explores the “tug of war” between the effects of Arctic amplification (“AA”) and upper‐troposphere tropical warming (“UTW”) on the response of the future North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. The late 21st century AA and UTW temperature anomalies are imposed in a high‐top atmospheric model by nudging the temperature. Two sets of experiments are performed, with and without feedback of the polar stratosphere to highlight its role in the response to UTW, AA, and both combined. With interactive polar stratosphere, UTW forces an equatorward shift of the eddy‐driven jet that reinforces the response to AA. However, when the polar stratosphere feedback is suppressed, the response to UTW is opposite and reflects the previously identified tug of war between the effects of UTW and AA in midlatitudes. This study highlights that the polar stratosphere is a key component for future changes in the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and that it must be accurately represented in climate change scenarios.