Abstract
For a major dam, the probable maximum flood (PMF) is frequently specified as the required inflow design flood (IDF). Often this specification is made to satisfy dam safety regulations, the inference being that if the PMF is used, all the necessary safety conditions will be satisfied. However, any rational design must be based on the probability of dam failure and the acceptable level of risk. Any flood, including the PMF, has some probability of occurrence, and it is necessary that probabilities be assigned before rational analysis can proceed. It is the thesis of this paper that a frequency can and must be assigned to the PMF, and that this can be achieved by decomposition of the event so that frequencies can be assigned to each of the components which combine to produce the PMF. Application of this procedure will allow rational selection of the IDF. In those cases where the PMF has a low probability of occurrence and the acceptable level of risk is high (relatively), the IDF would be smaller than the PMF.
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Schedule a callMore From: Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques
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