Abstract

This article examines the historical behavior of the Phillips curve over frequency bands corresponding to the short run, the business cycle and long run horizons. Data transformed using band-pass filtering methods and the Hodrick-Prescott filter suggest that a negative correlation between inflation and unemployment and a positive correlation between inflation and output growth exist within the business cycle horizon of 3 to 8 years. During the post-war period, the relationships change signs at low frequencies, indicating a positive sloped Phillips curve over long horizons. Additionally, the Phillips curve is found structurally unstable not only across frequencies, but also over time.

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