Abstract
The phase relations (leads/lags) among atmospheric CO 2 content, temperature and global ice volume are key to understanding the causes of glacial–interglacial (G–IG) climate transitions. Comparing the CO 2 record with other proxy variables from the Vostok ice core and stacked marine oxygen isotope records, allows the phase relations among these variables, over the last four G–IG cycles, to be estimated. Lagged, generalized least-squares regression provides an efficient and precise technique for this estimation. Bootstrap resampling allows account to be taken of measurement and timescale errors. Over the full 420 ka of the Vostok record, CO 2 variations lag behind atmospheric temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere by 1.3±1.0 ka , and lead over global ice-volume variations by 2.7±1.3 ka . However, significant short-term changes in the lag of CO 2 relative to temperature, subsequent to Terminations II and III, are also detected.
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