The Persian Gulf Crisis 2019-2020 and the U.S.-Iran interactions.

Abstract

The Persian Gulf crisis 2019-2020 is one of the challenges the international community is currently facing. After the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, the crisis has taken on new dimensions, calling into question the effectiveness of the U.S. strategy and its legitimacy in the Middle East. In order to provide a better view of the relationship between the U.S. and Iran, we identified the main underlying causes that contributed to paramount animosities and the reputation for resolve, classifying them into several categories: geostrategic, economic, symbolic, etc. To decipher the actions taken by combatants in 2019 and 2020, we analyzed the strategies adopted, the miscalculations, the strategic costs involved, and how they impacted the future interaction in the Middle East. Having access to numerous American primary sources (press, American officials’ speeches, official releases), we used theoretical aspects of political psychology in order to highlight the U.S. strategic incoherence. In the case of Iran, we used secondary sources to demonstrate the unjustified Iranian assertiveness during the crisis. This paper aims to question the rationality behind the decisions taken by the leaders of the two states and to determine to which extent these decisions were the product of a solid and rational decision-making process or the product of cognitive rigidity. This paper also emphasizes that the inference that the other’s image is the product of aggressiveness, was the main reason why coercive strategies did not have the desired effect on the initiator.