Abstract
The results of the 1994 U.S. national elections were by all accounts extraordinary. The Republican Party's victory was historic in its depth and breadth. The party gained fifty-two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, eight seats in the U.S. Senate, eleven governorships, and it took power in 15 state legislative chambers. The outcome in the House of Representatives was particularly startling, as Republicans seized control for the first time in forty years. Not only did Newt Gingrich become Speaker of the House, his predecessor Tom Foley was not even reelected. Moreover, almost no one with even a remotely plausible claim to disinterestedness predicted it. Pundits, pollsters, and political scientists grossly underestimated how large the swing toward the Republicans would be. Most predicted Democratic losses were in the range of 25 to 30 House seats-making the average forecast off by nearly 100 percent.'
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