The Performance of Opposition Parties in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: Three Case Studies from the Western Balkans

Claudia Laštro,Florian Bieber

doi:10.1057/s41304-021-00326-w

Abstract

This article investigates opposition to the competitive authoritarian regimes in Montenegro (1997–2020), North Macedonia (2006–2017), and Serbia (2012–). In each of the three countries, opposition parties face or have faced the challenge of competing on an electoral playing field that is structurally skewed in favour of the incumbent. The articles explore the question in which circumstances opposition parties have been able to contest the dominant parties. In doing so, it focuses on three dimensions, namely the relationship between spatial party competition, different levels of opposition cohesion or fragmentation, as well as extra-institutional strategies of contestation. The country comparison illustrates that party systems with cross-cutting cleavages tend to produce divided patterns of contestation (Montenegro and Serbia), whereas reinforcing cleavages facilitate the coordination among different types of opposition actors (North Macedonia). Finally, large protests, rather than boycotts, prior to elections have been important factors in facilitating opposition cohesion and signalling broad support (Montenegro and North Macedonia).

Highlights

Over the past two decades, political scientists have subsumed the regimes of the Western Balkans under the broader agenda of democratisation and Europeanisation studies
This article examines the opposition in Serbia, Montenegro (1990/7–2020),1 and North Macedonia (2006–2017), three countries in which competitive authoritarianism was most entrenched during the past decade in the Western Balkans
We argue that apart from individual events that have altered the opposition’s opportunity structure—such as the revelation of large-scale abuse of office (North Macedonia) or a controversial law (Montenegro)—the capacity of the opposition to effectively challenge incumbents depends on the nature of cleavages that underpin social and political divisions, as well as on the nature of the opposition parties and their mobilisation strategies

Summary

Introduction

Over the past two decades, political scientists have subsumed the regimes of the Western Balkans under the broader agenda of democratisation and Europeanisation studies (for a related discussion see, for example, Bieber 2014). This article examines the opposition in Serbia (since 2012), Montenegro (1990/7–2020), and North Macedonia (2006–2017), three countries in which competitive authoritarianism was most entrenched during the past decade in the Western Balkans. We will first outline the key features of the three competitive authoritarian regimes and the dimensions of spatial party competition in each country, followed by a discussion of the coalition building strategies of opposition parties and the key extra-institutional strategies they employ. The focus on these three dimensions is due to their centrality in opposition parties challenging incumbents in competitive authoritarian regimes

Case Selection

Opposition Coalition Building

Opposition Party Strategies

Conclusion