The performance of minority students beyond the freshman year: Testing a ?late-bloomer? hypothesis in one state university setting

Abstract

This study examines the validity of standard admissions variables for predicting the long-term performance of minority and nonminority students in one state university. Special attention is given to what may be termed a “late-bloomer” hypothesis, according to which minority students may be expected to show relatively greater improvement in performance following the freshman year than their nonminority classmates. This hypothesis derives from the plausible argument that minority students face unique problems of adjustment to college which adversely affect their first-year but not their long-term performance. The predictive validity of admissions variables was found to be higher for minority than for nonminority students regardless of the criterion under consideration, and somewhat higher for longer-term cumulative GPA than for shorter-term GPA. Minority and nonminority students were more sharply differentiated by overall cumulative undergraduate GPA than by first-year GPA, inconsistent with the late-bloomer hypothesis.