The Performance of ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System for European Extreme Fires: Portugal/Monchique in 2018

Abstract

At the beginning of August 2018, Portugal experienced a severe heat episode over a few days that consequently increased the probability of wildfire events. Due to the advection of an anomalous very hot and dry air mass, severe fire-prone meteorological conditions were forecasted mainly over southern Portugal, in the Monchique region. Together with the significant fuel amount accumulated since the last extreme wildfire in August 2003, all the unfavorable conditions were set to drive a severe fire over this region. The Monchique fire started on 3 August 2018, being very hard to suppress and lasting for seven days, with a burnt area of 27,000 ha. Regarding the need to have operational early warning tools, this work aims to evaluate the reliability of fire probabilistic products, up to 72 h ahead, together with the use of fire radiative power products, as support tools in fire monitoring and resource activities. To accomplish this goal, we used the fire probabilistic products of the Ensemble Prediction System, provided by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. Among available fire danger rating systems, the Fire Weather Index and the Fine Fuels Moisture Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System were selected to assess the meteorological fire danger. The assessment of the fire intensity was based on the Fire Radiative Energy released, considering the Fire Radiative Power, delivered in near real-time, by EUMETSAT Land Surface Analysis Satellite Applications Facility. The exceptional fire danger over southern Portugal that favors the ignition of the Monchique fire and its severity was essential driven by two important factors: (i) the anomalous fire weather danger, before and during the event; (ii) the accumulated fuel amount, since the last severe event occurred in 2003, over the region. Results show that the selected fire probabilistic products described the meteorological fire danger observed well, and the LSA-SAF products revealed the huge amount of fire energy emitted, in line with the difficulties faced by authorities to suppress the Monchique fire.