The perfect storm scenario for the university: Diagnosing converging tendencies in higher education

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to examine the future of higher education and higher education institutions. The point of departure is the discussion on the crisis of the university and the apparent lack in this discussion of reflections on the one thing that has historically made the university an important social institution: its capacity to prepare students for employment. The argument in the article is that higher education is determined by the convergence of three tendencies. First, the tendency that the university is losing its purpose, which is caused by an academic bias against employability and a managerial focus on administrative goals. Second, the tendency that academic ethos rather than academic skills is becoming central for future employability in higher education. Third, the tendency that the barriers of entry to the market for higher education are being reduced due to the digitalisation and liberalisation of higher education. My diagnosis suggests that the convergence of these three tendencies is very likely to result in a disruptive scenario for the university. The enquiry combines two analysis strategies of futures studies: diagnosis of the times and construction of future scenarios.