The perceived effectiveness and hidden inequity of postpandemic fiscal stimuli

Abstract

The world has committed trillions in fiscal expenditures to reboot the economy in the post–COVID-19 era. However, the effectiveness and the equity impacts of current fiscal stimuli are not fully understood. Using an extended adaptive regional input–output model, we assess the short-term impacts (2020 through 2022) of feasible stimuli on the global economy and the labor market. Our findings show that the stimuli pledged by 26 countries, i.e., 2.4 trillion euros in total, are effective in keeping the recession short and shallow by saving 53 million to 57 million jobs (compared to the no-stimulus scenario). However, the stimuli exacerbate income inequity at the global scale if we define “equity” as those who suffer more from the pandemic should receive more assistance. Low-skilled workers in these countries, who suffer more from the pandemic than high-skilled workers, benefit 38 to 41% less from the job-creation effects of the current fiscal stimuli. As an alternative, low-carbon stimuli can achieve a balance between effectiveness and equity at the global level. Low-carbon stimuli save 55 million to 58 million jobs and decrease income inequality by 2 to 3% globally compared to the currently pledged stimuli. Country-level situations are more complicated, as modifying the current stimuli to achieve more “greenness” brings win–win in effectiveness and equity in some countries, while in the others, more greenness and equity are at the expense of less job savings. Our findings underscore the need to consider the overlooked trade-offs between effectiveness, equity, and greenness, both globally and nationally, when designing further postpandemic fiscal stimuli.