The pathway to net-zero emission in aviation – How much can we rely on sustainable aviation fuel?

Abstract

The aviation industry is under constant pressure to reduce its environmental footprint and eventually achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. In order to accomplish this ambitious but necessary goal, a variety of measures have been employed over the last two decades, among which the application of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) plays a prominent role. Policymakers aim at substituting 80-90% of aviation fuel by SAF in 2050, thus reducing global aviation CO2 emissions by 62%. In theory, these fuels can already be integrated in up to 50% of the fuel capacity of current aircraft as “drop-in” fuels. However, due to numerous operational and regulatory barriers surrounding the exploitation of SAF, it is still not clear how, in combination with traditional jet fuel, it will affect the cost aspect of airline operations. Considering the traffic projection provided by EUROCONTROL according to which the traffic will undoubtedly increase in the next decade, the aim of the paper is to provide a preliminary assessment of the financial impact of SAF on an airline's total fuel cost. For this purpose, the analysis is based on a single carrier that follows a hybrid business model and mainly focuses its operation on intra-European routes. Creating different scenarios for SAF's future costs as well as the share of SAF in total fuel required, this paper provides some realistic results that may serve as a solid foundation for the airline to better understand the implications of SAF on its financial aspects, keeping in mind that fuel costs still constitute a large portion in an airline's direct operating costs. The proposed methodology may be applied to any carrier with an interest in SAF.