The Path-Dependency of Low-Income Neighbourhood Trajectories: An Approach for Analysing Neighbourhood Change

Merle Zwiers,Reinout Kleinhans,Maarten Van Ham

doi:10.1007/s12061-016-9189-z

Merle Zwiers, Reinout Kleinhans + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-016-9189-z

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Abstract

The gap between wealthy and disadvantaged neighbourhoods seems to be increasing in many contemporary Western cities. Most studies of neighbourhood change focus on specific case-studies of neighbourhood downgrading or gentrification. Studies investigating socio-spatial polarisation in larger urban areas often compare neighbourhoods at two points in time, neglecting the underlying dynamic character of neighbourhoods. In the current literature, the question if neighbourhoods with similar characteristics experience similar changes over time remains unanswered. As a result, it is unclear why some neighbourhoods appear to be more prone to change than others. In this paper, we propose a dual approach for analysing neighbourhood change. We argue that researchers should both adopt a long-term perspective (20–40 years), because significant changes are only visible after longer periods of time, and focus on more detailed neighbourhood trajectories to understand how neighbourhood change is interrelated with context. Focussing on Dutch neighbourhoods over the period 1971–2013, we analyse the role of physical characteristics on low-income neighbourhood trajectories using an innovative visualisation technique. A tree-structured discrepancy analysis allows for the visualisation of complete neighbourhood pathways, enabling the analysis of complex, contextualised patterns of change. We find that the original quality of neighbourhoods and dwellings seems to be an important predictor for future neighbourhood trajectories, indicating a high level of path-dependency.

Highlights

Socio-spatial polarisation is increasing in many large cities throughout Europe (Tammaru et al 2016)
Socio-spatial polarisation refers to the process where the gap between the rich and the poor is increasing, which is translated into spatial segregation along ethnic or socioeconomic lines
We present an approach for analysing neighbourhood change by focussing on long-term neighbourhood change combined with a detailed analysis of neighbourhood trajectories

Summary

Introduction

Socio-spatial polarisation is increasing in many large cities throughout Europe (Tammaru et al 2016). In most of the studies on socio-spatial polarisation the continuous dynamic character of neighbourhoods is neglected, reducing neighbourhood change to the difference between two points in time. Bailey 2012; Jivraj 2013; Hochstenbach and Van Gent 2015) These studies have provided important insight in the drivers behind neighbourhood change, they are typically limited to time-specific case-studies in particular cities. As neighbourhoods do not operate in a societal and policy vacuum, changes in one neighbourhood are likely to affect other neighbourhoods as well It has, for example, been argued that processes of urban restructuring or gentrification are likely to lead to new concentrations of deprivation in other neighbourhoods through the displacement of low-income groups (Bolt et al 2009). The upgrading of one neighbourhood might go hand-in-hand with the deterioration of another neighbourhood (Musterd and Ostendorf 2005; Bråmå 2013)

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