Abstract
Based on the view of increasing rural income by transfer of surplus labor force, this study took partial elements as independent variable to build partial least-squares regression (PLS) model. According to the statistic data from 2003 to 2017 in Heilongjiang province, we analyzed the prechose variable about route of rural income increased by PLS method using matab 7.0 to analysis the data. The research suggested that all chosen variables have positive effect, such as value of agriculture production, value of forestry animal husbandry and fishery, number of rural workers, number of rural migrant workers, the total power of agricultural machinery, agricultural production investment, non-agricultural income and rural per capita net income. Based on analysis of result, this study proposed the effective transfer of surplus of labor force is the policy suggestion for realizing rapid growth in rural income.
Highlights
China is a typical country with surplus labor force
In order to emphasize the relationship between the surplus labor transfer and the farmers' income, we took non-agricultural income which only take salary income earned in the form of engaging in non-agricultural industries after labor transfer to work as an example
We can reach the following conclusions: (1) various influencing factors, such as agricultural production value x1, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry output value x2, agriculture workers x3, the number of rural migrant workers x4, total agricultural machinery power x5, farmers productive investment x6 and of non-agricultural income x7 will directly affect the per capita net income of farmers y. (2) the partial least-squares regression (PLS) method can effectively eliminate the multiple correlation among each variable, at the same time, the PLS model is a preferable research method of analyzing the influence factors to quantitative prediction and farmers' income, which can fit result close the actual statistics, own less prediction errors, and higher the prediction accuracy
Summary
China is a typical country with surplus labor force. The ‘Three agriculture-related issues’ is the most prominent problem during the process of modernization and coordinated development of urban-rural economy. Transferring rural surplus labor could promote to increase rural family income[2], at the same time, it could narrow the rural income gap[3], where may exist nonlinear relationship[4], which is the precondition of food production scale[5]and has become a new growth point of underdeveloped rural areas’ income[6].It has a positive correlation between farmers' income and the number of labor force engaged in the secondary industry[7]. Transfer of the rural labor could inhibit the expansion of urban-rural income gap in short time but it may cause the income gap expansion between urban and rural areas for the long run[8] It showed that transfer of labor interacts with the income gap between urban and rural areas [9], The discrimination for labor market in big city for the rural labor migration didn’t really narrow the gap between urban and rural income[10]. Based on the perspective of surplus labor transfer, PLS model is adopted to analyze way of increasing farmers' income for Heilongjiang province, in order to verify the ideas and judgment that transfer of rural surplus labor smoothly and orderly is the most effective way of increasing farmers' income
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