The Past in the Present—The Role of Analogical Reasoning in Epistemic Learning About How to Tackle Complex Policy Problems

Abstract

This article unpacks the role that analogical reasoning plays in epistemic learning, helping actors identify and evaluate what solutions can be used to fix complex, high‐stakes policy problems. Based on recent research in cognitive psychology, we develop a two‐stage analogical reasoning model of learning in which core causal lessons are transferred to the current target case, but where contextual differences are also discounted. The result is the restriction of the set of solutions considered in a policy debate to those that have positive source cases associated with them, and no compelling negative source cases. In the Banking Union case study assessed in this article, we provide evidence that analogical reasoning did play an important role in setting the parameters of the debates. The article concludes with a call for policy analysts to pay more attention to how comparisons with the past structure policy debates.