Abstract
How much will people travel in the future? Which modes of transport will they use? Where will traffic be most intense? The answers are critical for planning infrastructures and for assessing the consequences of mobility. They will help societies anticipate environmental problems such as regional acid rain and global warming, which are partially caused by transport emissions. These questions also lie at the center of efforts to estimate the future size of markets for transportation hardware -- aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains. In this research, the authors have tried to answer these questions for 11 geographic regions specifically and more generally for the world. Historical statistics for trains, buses, automobiles and high-speed transport were used to compose a scenario for the future volume of passenger travel, as well as the relative prevalence of different forms of transportation through the year 2050.
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