The Palestinian Political Option After Arafat

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to suggest a way forward for a successful implementation of the Palestinian political option. Although the election of Abu Mazen, in January 2005, as President of the Palestinian Authority and the conclusion of a Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire on 8 February have generated an atmosphere of cautious optimism regarding the resumption of the peace process between both sides, there are important obstacles that need to be tackled before a Palestinian-Israeli peace settlement becomes realisable. These obstacles are related mainly to the Palestinian, Israeli and regional actors, although external involvement, especially by the U.S., could have a significant impact on the success or failure of this peace process, both through pressure or mediation. On the Palestinian side there is an expectation by Israel and the international community that the Palestinians come to terms with accepting Israel as a state. Compromise is needed on the issues of the return of Palestinian refugees, East Jerusalem and Jewish settlements. Also both moderate and radical Palestinians would be expected to commit themselves formally to such a settlement with Israel. On the Israeli side the most basic expectation that the Palestinians would have is a virtually complete Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza and also the Israeli acceptance of some satisfactory (possibly compromise) solution that would help in dealing with the question of the Palestinian refugees. Moreover, since regional actors could play an important role in facilitating or complicating the conclusion and implementation of a Palestinian-Israeli settlement (through mediation between both sides or by encouraging and supporting radical Palestinian groups), it would be important to arrive at a broader and satisfactory Arab-Israeli settlement in a parallel or simultaneous way, involving Syria and Lebanon. Even if these optimistic objectives can be met, one should expect some elements on the Palestinian, Israeli, Arab and Islamic levels to be dissatisfied with this approach and to cause problems regarding its potential success.