Abstract
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a new type of virus called SARS-CoV-2, and by the beginning of 2020 had spread throughout the world, including Indonesia. A high rate of spread of COVID-19 causes the number of patients that infected increase significantly. In this study, mathematical modeling was carried out to predict the number of COVID-19 patients and the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. The model used is a modified SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) with several assumptions such as a constant and homogeneous population, patients who have recovered can not be infected, and the spread only occurs from human to human. In addition, it is assumed that there are individuals who carry out quarantine and isolation. Modeling is done using the help of MATLAB R2015a. The modeling results show that the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia will occur in the middle of May 2020, and the number of infected patients will be about 15000 people. This amount can be reduced if the quarantine and self-isolation process is carried out optimally.
Highlights
The coronavirus that first appeared in Wuhan, China, on 8 December 2019 turned into a pandemic outbreak that spread throughout the world, including Indonesia
The disease caused by a coronavirus (COVID-19) was first confirmed in Indonesia with two infected people on 2 March 2020
A modified SEIR model [12] will be used by adjusting several parameters to predict the total number of COVID-19 cases and the duration of this pandemic in Indonesia
Summary
The coronavirus that first appeared in Wuhan, China, on 8 December 2019 turned into a pandemic outbreak that spread throughout the world, including Indonesia. Batista [6] using SIR model to predict the number of coronavirus pandemic cases and shows that as many as 85000 people will be infected. Huang Y [7] used the SIR model and estimated that more than 1 million people would be infected with coronavirus in Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Iran. This model does not consider the incubation time of the virus, whereas coronaviruses, according to various studies, have an incubation period. A modified SEIR model [12] will be used by adjusting several parameters to predict the total number of COVID-19 cases and the duration of this pandemic in Indonesia
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