The out-migration of young people from a region of the “Empty Spain”: Between a constant slump cycle and a pending innovation spiral

Abstract

Depopulation is one of the main problems in declining rural territories, whose inhabitants have the perception of being immersed in a spiral of socio-economic deterioration where each setback experienced in the region push a greater number of young people towards the decision to emigrate. This process was described by the economist G. Myrdal through his theory of circular and cumulative causation (CCC), which explains both the territorial processes of decline and economic and demographic improvement found in other regions. Applying the CCC approach to investigate the causes that for decades have led young people to emigrate from a region of so-called Empty Spain, the Altiplano de Granada, this article describes its linkage with three closely interrelated factors of territorial development: human capital, social capital, and capacity for innovation. The results of the binary logistic regression analysis based on a survey of 446 young people between 15 and 19 years of age, suggest four main predictors of the intention to stay in their rural hometowns: gender, the personal attachment, the father's education level, and the interest in the family history. Conversely, no significant relations were found between social capital and intention to stay or leave the Altiplano de Granada. Specific recommendations for policies and rural development programs emerge from these results regarding the inclusion of youth, education systems, and local innovation systems as a priority.