Abstract
Banks make profits from the difference between short-term and long-term loan interest rates. To issue loans, banks raise funds from capital markets. Since the long-term loan rate is relatively stable, but short-term interest is usually variable, there is an interest rate risk. Therefore, banks need information about the optimal leverage strategies based on the current economic situation. Recent studies on the economic crisis by many economists showed that the crisis was due to too much leveraging by “big banks”. This leveraging turns out to be close to Kelly’s optimal point. It is known that Kelly’s strategy does not address risk adequately. We used the return–drawdown ratio and inflection point of Kelly’s cumulative return curve in a finite investment horizon to derive more conservative leverage levels. Moreover, we carried out a sensitivity analysis to determine strategies during a period of interest rates increase, which is the most important and risky period to leverage. Thus, we brought theoretical results closer to practical applications. Furthermore, by using the sensitivity analysis method, banks can change the allocation sizes to loans with different maturities to mediate the risks corresponding to different monetary policy environments. This provides bank managers flexible tools in mitigating risk.
Highlights
Banks’ loan operations issue long-term loans at relatively high fixed interest rates and fund these loans with their own equity, low interest customer deposits, and short-term loans borrowed from the open market
Besides the leverage level suggested by the growth optimal portfolio theory, their analysis suggests two other reasonable risk-adjusted optimal leverage levels: The return to drawdown ratio optimal and the inflection point of marginal increase of return
We present our numerical results of three optimal leverage levels using the historical data described above
Summary
Banks’ loan operations issue long-term loans at relatively high fixed interest rates and fund these loans with their own equity, low interest customer deposits, and short-term loans borrowed from the open market. The results of calibrating the historical US loan interest rates shows that the leverage level of the US major banks right before the 2008 financial crisis was 20–30 times of bank equity This level was close to what is suggested by the growth optimal portfolio theory in Latane (1959), a well-known theoretical optimal leverage. Besides the leverage level suggested by the growth optimal portfolio theory, their analysis suggests two other reasonable risk-adjusted optimal leverage levels: The return to drawdown ratio optimal and the inflection point of marginal increase of return. We performed a test, with the most conservative leverage level (inflection point), to compare changing the optimal leverage level with (Fed) interest rates changes vs. The final step provides practical strategies for a bank loan operation during different phases of the monetary policies of increasing or decreasing short-term interest rates. Adjustment strategies are suggested for the loan operation in order to deal with different monetary policy environments
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