The Optimal Path for China to Achieve the “Dual Carbon” Target from the Perspective of Energy Structure Optimization

Abstract

Exploring the path of energy structure optimization to reduce carbon emissions and achieve a carbon peak has important policy implications for achieving the “Dual Carbon” target. To this end, this paper explores the optimal path for China to achieve the “dual carbon” target from the perspective of energy structure optimization in three steps: (1) we forecast China’s carbon emissions and carbon intensity during 2024–2035 based on a combined forecasting model; (2) we simulate the development of energy consumption and carbon emissions under the “economic development scenario-energy structure scenario” with the help of Markov chain forecasting model; (3) we construct a multi-attribute decision model to account for the above elements as variables to calculate a composite index to analyze the optimal path for China to achieve “Dual Carbon” target under different decision preferences. It is found that (1) potential negative effects caused by COVID-19 are not as serious as reported; (2) only the scenario with low-speed economic growth and effective policies guiding, which doesn’t follow laws of social development, can contribute to reaching carbon peaking by 2030 while maintaining a high-quality carbon intensity; (3) the optimal path that scenario with middle-speed economic growth and strict cost control is a sub-optimal choice subject to realities; (4) technologies innovations in green or low-carbon fields are needed to accelerate energy consumption structure optimization.