The Optimal Bidding Strategy Based on Multistage Risk for Wind Power Supplier

Abstract

In order to improve the ability of grid-connected wind power supplier to predict and manage risk, and analyze the economic benefit of wind power supplier, a model of bidding strategy for grid-connected wind power supplier is established based on the risk measurements indicator of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The model considering the trade-off problem between risks and benefits comprehensively which includes three risk factors as: fluctuated market price, uncertain load demand and random wind power output. By using the kernel density estimation method (KDE) on output forecast, this optimal model obtains bidding strategy and economic benefit of grid-connected wind power supplier under the impact of multistage risk in different risk preferences and compares the results with the impact of individual risk fluctuation.The calculation results show the validity of the proposed method.