Abstract
We illustrate a method for delaying and possibly eliminating the evolution of non-responsiveness to the treatments now used to control pest populations. Using simulations and estimates of the variance in relative fitness, i.e., the opportunity for selection, in a rat-like mammal, we show that the selection responsible for the evolution of non-responsiveness to pesticides and sterility-inducers, is similar in its action to sexual selection, and for this reason can be orders of magnitude stronger than that which exists for untreated populations. In contrast, we show that when contraceptives are used to reduce the fertility of a pest species, with non-responders embedded within such populations, the opportunity for selection favoring non-responsiveness is reduced to that which is expected by chance alone. In pest species with separate sexes, we show that efforts to control pest populations or to mitigate selection favoring non-responsiveness, are likely to be ineffective when members of one sex are sterilized or killed. We also show that while mating preferences can impede the rate at which resistance evolves, they are more likely to accelerate this process, arguing against the use of sterile male approaches for controlling pests. Our results suggest that contraceptives are more effective at controlling pest populations and slowing the evolution of non-responsiveness than treatments that cause sterilization or death in target species. Furthermore, our results indicate that contraceptives that work differentially on each sex will be most effective in mitigating selection favoring non-responders. Our results have significant implications for the development and application of treatments to manage pests, now and into the future.
Highlights
Human populations and the nutritional resources that support them have undergone unprecedented expansion since the mid-20th century (Tilman et al, 2001; Jackson et al, 2001; Kraussman et al, 2013)
The principles we describe may apply broadly to the evolution of resistance to all forms of chemical and biological control, our framework compares the strength of selection that exists in two contexts for rats: (1) that which exists for pest treatments that cause sterility or death, and (2) that which exists with pest treatments that reduce fertility
We summarized in columns identified for each male mating system (GM, Random mating (RM), SSM, skew in mating success (SSE); Appendix E), the following male life history and mating system parameters: the variance in male offspring numbers, VOmales(JK), the opportunity for selection on males, Imales(JK), the ratio, Imales(JK)/Ifemales(JK), as an index of the degree to which a sex difference in the opportunity for selection might be responsible for trait divergence, and Iaverage(JK), the average opportunity for selection between males and females
Summary
Human populations and the nutritional resources that support them have undergone unprecedented expansion since the mid-20th century (Tilman et al, 2001; Jackson et al, 2001; Kraussman et al, 2013) Much of this growth can be attributed to the development of pesticides designed to eliminate agricultural and other humanassociated pests (Hoy, 1998; Palumbi, 2001). They pass genetic factors responsible for their nonresponsiveness to offspring, allowing the population fraction eliminated by the pesticide to be replaced by individuals who are resistant to its later application (Fig. 1) Repetition of this sequence with higher treatment concentrations leads to increasingly resistant populations of pests (i.e., higher proportions of non-responders within the population), a process that threatens to make most pesticides obsolete (May, 1985; Ishizuka et al, 2008). Evolved resistance is recognized as one of the most significant problems of modern times (Garrett, 1994; Palumbi, 2001; Davies and Davies, 2010; Frieri et al, 2016; Gould et al, 2018)
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