The operationally ready full 3D magnetohydrodynamic model from the Sun to Earth: COCONUT+Icarus

Abstract

Context. Solar wind modelling has become a crucial area of study due to the increased dependence of modern society on technology, navigation, and power systems. Accurate space weather forecasts can predict upcoming threats to Earth’s geospace and allow for harmful socioeconomic impacts to be mitigated. Coronal and heliospheric models must be as realistic as possible to achieve successful predictions. In this study, we examine a novel full magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) chain from the Sun to Earth. Aims. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the capabilities of the full MHD modelling chain from the Sun to Earth by finalising the implementation of the full MHD coronal model into the COolfluid COroNa UnsTructured (COCONUT) model and coupling it to the MHD heliospheric model Icarus. The resulting coronal model has significant advantages compared to the pre-existing polytropic alternative, as it includes more physics and allows for a more realistic modelling of bi-modal wind, which is crucial for heliospheric studies. In particular, we examine different empirical formulations for the heating terms in the MHD equations to determine an optimal one that would be able to mimic a realistic solar wind configuration most accurately. Methods. New heating source terms were implemented into the MHD equations of the pre-existing polytropic COCONUT model. A realistic specific heat ratio was applied. In this study, only thermal conduction, radiative losses, and approximated coronal heating function were considered in the energy equation. Multiple approximated heating profiles were examined to see the effect on the solar wind. The output of the coronal model was used to onset the 3D MHD heliospheric model Icarus. A minimum solar activity case was chosen as the first test case for the full MHD model. The numerically simulated data in the corona and the heliosphere were compared to observational products. First, we compared the density data to the available tomography data near the Sun and then the modelled solar wind time series in Icarus was compared to OMNI 1-min data at 1 AU. Results. A range of approximated heating profiles were used in the full MHD coronal model to obtain a realistic solar wind configuration. The bi-modal solar wind was obtained for the corona when introducing heating that is dependent upon the magnetic field. The modelled density profiles are in agreement with the tomography data. The modelled wind in the heliosphere is in reasonable agreement with observations. Overall, the density is overestimated, whereas the speed at 1 AU is more similar to OMNI 1-min data. The general profile of the magnetic field components is modelled well, but its magnitude is underestimated. Conclusions. We present a first attempt to obtain the full MHD chain from the Sun to Earth with COCONUT and Icarus. The coronal model has been upgraded to a full MHD model for a realistic bi-modal solar wind configuration. The approximated heating functions have modelled the wind reasonably well, but simple approximations are not enough to obtain a realistic density-speed balance or realistic features in the low corona and farther, near the outer boundary. The full MHD model was computed in 1.06 h on 180 cores of the Genius cluster of the Vlaams Supercomputing Center, which is only 1.8 times longer than the polytropic simulation. The extended model gives the opportunity to experiment with different heating formulations and improves the approximated function to model the real solar wind more accurately.