Abstract
The transition to a low carbon energy system as laid out in the Paris Agreement and the European Green Deal presents challenges that involve society at all levels from planners to consumers. A key challenge is the communication across these levels. Tools to foster engagement and discussion between the different actors are open-source models with a low threshold for uptake. This paper presents the Open-Source electricity Model Base for Europe an electricity sector engagement model covering all member states of the EU, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Built in OSeMOSYS and available on GitHub, the model provides a starting point into energy systems modelling and can be further developed in a collaborative manner. It enables non-experts to develop an understanding of energy systems models and energy planning. Thereby, it can serve as an engagement tool to carry the debate on the future of the European power system beyond the academy, which might contribute to finding societal consensus on how to decarbonise our energy system. The model allows dynamic power sector expansion analysis of the European power system till 2050. It can be used for scenario analysis and is expandable to other sectors to analyse the benefits of sector coupling.
Highlights
In the European Green Deal of the European Commission (EC) the EU commits itself to net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050 and a decoupling of growth from resource use [1]. 35% of the energy-related CO2 emissions in the EU originate from the power and heat sector, thereby it is the largest source of energyrelated emissions [2]
This paper has presented OSeMBE, a low-threshold fully-open model of the electricity system of the EU27þ3
OSeMBE captures the key dynamics of the evolution of the EU power sector until 2050 in an essential but realistic way, offering an engagement tool, able to connect non-modellers and students to the European energy modelling community and to offer insights into its work
Summary
In the European Green Deal of the European Commission (EC) the EU commits itself to net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050 and a decoupling of growth from resource use [1]. 35% of the energy-related CO2 emissions in the EU originate from the power and heat sector, thereby it is the largest source of energyrelated emissions [2]. In 2017 the EU electricity sector had a carbon intensity of 294 gCO2/kWh [3] This relates to 936 million tonnes of CO2, which are about 25% of the CO2 emission in the EU, while only representing 21% of the final energy demand in the EU [4]. For comparison heating and cooling represent approximately 50% of the final energy demand in the EU [5] To reduce these emissions by 2050 or even earlier to net zero while maintaining secure and affordable electricity supply, thorough energy planning is needed. To reach these ambitious goals, citizens need to be able to understand and engage in the process, at the local level. Pfenninger et al highlight in this regard that open models and open data can improve the quality of research, increase the efficiency of the collaboration across the science-policy boundary, increase the productivity through burden sharing, and that energy models and data have a profound relevance to societal debates [8]
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