The Ontology of International Crisis

Abstract

For the study of international crisis to yield insights of value to both scholars and policymakers, it is imperative to understand what the term “international crisis” means in the abstract and what qualifies as an international crisis in the real world. It is also important to establish criteria for distinguishing species of the genus. These tasks require clearing up conceptual ambiguities, articulating and justifying a working definition of “international crisis,” demonstrating the utility of that definition for both scholarly analysis and practical policymaking, and exploring potentially fruitful ways in which international crises can be categorized. The working definition proposed is as follows: An international crisis is a decisive encounter between two or more states involving a plausibly elevated danger of imminent war. International crisis so conceived is inherently a decision-making problem and cannot be understood in purely systemic terms, divorced from policymakers’ perceptions of (a) the challenges they face, (b) the stakes involved, (c) the time constraints under which they operate, or (d) the severity of their predicament. While international crisis is not always entirely in the eye of the beholder, it is sufficient to establish that an international crisis is in play if decision makers believe that it is, whether or not their beliefs are well-founded. Without prejudging empirical analysis, it is plausible to suggest that both the analysis and the management of international crises may differ depending upon their genesis, the nature of the stakes involved, their severity, their payoff structure, and whether or not the protagonists have nuclear weapons.