Abstract
Following an announcement in 2004 by the South African government that in the coming years it would endeavour to reduce violent crime by seven to ten per cent per annum, total levels of violent crime dropped by 25 per cent over the next five years. However, a closer look at the crime statistics over this period reveals a number of peculiarities that require explanation. In recent years there have also been numerous press reports on the manipulation of crime statistics that have highlighted the existence of incentives within the SAPS not to record violent crime. This article argues that the identified peculiarities in crime statistics can be understood as linked to non-recording, which is shaped by a hierarchy of violent crime in which some categories of crime are viewed as important while others are viewed as unimportant. This implies that current violent crime statistics cannot be relied on as an indicator of trends in violent crime.
Highlights
During 2004 the South African government announced that in the coming years it would endeavour to reduce violent crime by seven to ten per cent per annum
Over the following five years there was a steep decrease of 25 per cent in the overall level of violent crime in South Africa as measured by the total number of incidents of assault, robbery, murder and attempted murder (Table 1).[2]
This is a category of violent crime that usually escapes scrutiny from people commenting on crime statistics, as it is understood to represent a less serious form of violence
Summary
Following an announcement in 2004 by the South African government that in the coming years it would endeavour to reduce violent crime by seven to ten per cent per annum, total levels of violent crime dropped by 25 per cent over the five years. This article argues that the identified peculiarities in crime statistics can be understood as linked to non-recording, which is shaped by a hierarchy of violent crime in which some categories of crime are viewed as important while others are viewed as unimportant. This implies that current violent crime statistics cannot be relied on as an indicator of trends in violent crime. 43 per cent is accounted for by the decline in cases of common assault, and a further 27 per cent in cases of assault GBH, so that 70 per cent of the total reduction is accounted for by different categories of assault
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