The one degree war plan

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present the idea of a global crisis plan that will be demanded when global society finally decides that the climate challenge is a real threat, requiring immediate and strong policy action at the super‐national level. The authors believe that this demand will arise before 2020, and the authors hope that this paper will encourage others to improve on the plan.Design/methodology/approachThe paper seeks to achieve the purpose by presenting the first draft of such a plan – “The one degree war plan” – in rather concrete terms, and estimating (in quantitative terms) the expected reduction in climate gas emissions that would result from implementing the crisis plan.FindingsThe paper finds that it is surprisingly simple to develop a plan which will reduce global emissions by 50 per cent in five years. It also seems possible to lower global emissions to zero in the ensuing decade, and then run negative emissions of 6 GtCO2e/year for the rest of the century (through carbon capture in various forms). The result, using the C‐ROADS climate model, is to keep the temperature rise in 2100 below +1°C above the pre‐industrial level. Much work needs to assure these conclusions.Practical implicationsThe authors argue that public awareness of the dangers associated with climate change will increase over the next decade, to the level where it is perceived to be a significant threat to global economic and geopolitical stability. The public will then demand emergency action to cut global climate gas emissions. The authors argue that such emergency action ought to be based on a well‐prepared crisis response plan that seeks to keep global warming below +1°C over pre‐industrial levels. The paper presents a draft of the crisis response plan and encourages further efforts to improve the plan.Social implicationsThe social value of having a well‐considered and well‐prepared climate crisis plan in place once the public demand immediate climate action from their politicians, can hardly be overestimated.Originality/valueTo the authors' knowledge, no similar crisis plan has been published.