The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of China's one-child policy. Using a calibrated general-equilibrium model, a benchmark with a fertility constraint in place is compared to a counterfactual experiment without the fertility constraint. The results indicate that the implementation of the one-child policy promotes the accumulation of human capital and increases per capita output. In addition, the policy leads to different welfare effects across generations and skill groups. The initial generation would benefit from relaxing the one-child policy, but the following generations would be hurt. A redistribution effect between skilled and unskilled workers is also observed. These findings demonstrate that focusing solely on GDP per capita as a measure of economic well-being paints an incomplete picture of the welfare consequences of population policies.