The oncologic burden of residual disease in incidental gallbladder cancer: An elastic net regression model to profile high-risk features

Abstract

IntroductionIncidental Gallbladder Cancer (IGBC) following cholecystectomy constitutes a significant portion of gallbladder cancer diagnoses. Re-exploration is advocated to optimize disease clearance and enhance survival rates. The consistent association of residual disease (RD) with inferior oncologic outcomes prompts a critical examination of re-resection's role as a modifying factor in the natural history of IGBC. MethodsAll patients diagnosed with gallbladder cancer between 2012 and 2022 were included. An elastic net regularized regression model was employed to profile high-risk predictors of RD within the IGBC group. Survival outcomes were assessed based on resection margins and RD. ResultsAmong the 181 patients undergoing re-exploration for IGBC, 133 (73.5 %) harbored RD, while 48 (26.5 %) showed no evidence. The elastic net model, utilizing a selected λ = 0.029, identified six coefficients associated with the risk of RD: aspiration from cholecystectomy (0.141), hepatic tumor origin (1.852), time to re-exploration >8 weeks (1.879), positive margin status (2.575), higher T stage (1.473), and poorly differentiated tumors (2.241). Furthermore, the study revealed a median overall survival of 44 months (CI 38–60) for IGBC patients with no evidence of RD, compared to 31 months (23–42) for those with RD (p < 0.001). ConclusionRe-resection revealed a high incidence of RD (73.5 %), significantly correlating with poorer survival outcomes. The preoperative identification of high-risk features provides a reliable biological disease profile. This aids in strategic preselection of patients who may benefit from re-resection, underscoring the need to consolidate outcomes with tailored chemotherapy for those with unfavorable characteristics.