Abstract
This paper aims at providing a quantitative evaluation of the performance of a set of empirical ground motion models (GMMs), by testing them in a magnitude and distance range (Mw = 5.5 ÷ 7.0 and Joyner-Boore source-to-site distance Rjb ≤ 20 km) which dominates hazard in the highest seismicity areas of Italy for the return periods of upmost interest for seismic design. To this end, we made use of the very recent release of the NESS2.0 dataset (Sgobba et al. NESS2.0: an updated version of the worldwide dataset for calibrating and adjusting ground motion models in near-source. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), 2021. https://doi.org/10.13127/NESS.2.0), that collects worldwide near-source strong motion records with detailed metadata. After selection of an ample set of GMMs, based on either their application in past seismic hazard assessment (SHA) studies or for their recent introduction, a quantification of between- and within-event residuals of predictions with respect to records was performed, with the final aim of shedding light on the performance of existing GMMs in the near-source of moderate-to-large earthquakes, also in view of their potential improvement by taking advantage of results from 3D physics-based numerical simulations.
Highlights
There is a general consensus that empirical ground motion models (GMMs) are bound to improve their effectiveness and predictive performance as new records become available, it is recognized that, in spite of increasing data and more complex parametrizations, a significant reduction in the aleatory variability cannot be achieved (Douglas and Edwards, 2016).Among the many GMMs available in the literature, quantitative approaches to provide weights in view of their application to seismic hazard assessment (SHA) have recently been applied, starting from the work by Scherbaum et al (2009), who devised a log-likelihood scoring scheme, based on the calculation of residuals between observed and predicted values
This paper aims at providing a quantitative evaluation of the performance of a set of empirical ground motion models (GMMs), by testing them in a magnitude and distance range (Mw = 5.5 ÷ 7.0 and JoynerBoore source-to-site distance Rjb ≤ 20 km) which dominates hazard in the highest seismicity areas of Italy for the return periods of upmost interest for seismic design
This M-R range may not be strictly considered as near-source, we will check the performance of different GMMs with records included in NESS 2.0 (Sgobba et al, 2021, referred to in the following as NESS): a near-source dataset including worldwide records from active shallow crustal regions, with a careful documentation in terms of seismic source and site conditions metadata
Summary
The NESS2.0 dataset is freely available at the website http://ness.mi.ingv.it/ (Last access: June 6th 2021). The records from ITACA were downloaded from the ITalian ACcelerometric Archive, http://itaca.mi.ingv.it (Last access: March 12th 2021). The records from SIMBAD were provided by Chiara Smerzini (Politecnico di Milano)
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