The Offending Trajectories of Youthful Aboriginal Offenders

Abstract

The current study examine the offending trajectories of Aboriginal youths under a probation sentence in Manitoba, Canada, and compared them to those of non-Aboriginal juvenile probationers. The results from growth-mixture analyses indicated that, for both sub-samples, a two-group latent trajectory model best represented the shape of the developmental progression in criminal behaviour from early adolescence to middle adulthood. While a small proportion of the offenders showed serious and persistent offending behaviour over their life-course, the majority of the juvenile probationers engaged in relatively less frequent and/or serious criminal activity over time. The size of the chronic high-offending trajectory group was slightly larger among the Aboriginal offenders (18.7%) than among the non-Aboriginal offenders (12.3%). Additional analyses revealed that the Aboriginal offenders were more likely to come from an impoverished background, characterized by an unstable familial environment, substance use, and negative peer associations. These criminogenic risk/needs contributed to their serious and persistent pattern of criminality. In contrast, accommodation problems predicted increased odds of membership in the chronic high group of the non-Aboriginal offenders. The article concludes with a discussion of potential implications and suggestions for future research.