The ocean response to operational westerly wind bursts during the 1991–1992 El Niño

Abstract

Numerical simulations of the remotely forced ocean response to westerly wind bursts prior to and during the 1991–1992 El Niño are examined; the models are forced by wind stress from the U.S. Navy's atmospheric global operational analysis/forecast system. The study focuses on (1) the relative response of the first and second internal modes to a single episode of westerly bursts; (2) the role of westerly bursts in producing the eastern Pacific sea level variations from October 1990 to February 1992; and (3) the relative importance of the remotely forced sea level responses generated by central and western Pacific wind anomalies. The simulations use the Naval Research Laboratory global multilayer formulation; the suite of experiments includes hydrodynamic simulations that use both one‐ and three‐active‐layer reduced gravity models as well as an experiment that also includes thermodynamic effects. The models are executed from January 1, 1990, to March 1, 1992, a period that includes 10 significant westerly wind bursts or burst clusters and the 1991–1992 El Niño event. The numerical experiments reveal an ability to accurately simulate the eastern Pacific sea level variations during this period. In response to a single burst the three‐layer hydrodynamic simulation reveals that the second internal mode Kelvin wave yields a sea level change at the eastern boundary that is approximately one third that of the first mode and a surface velocity signature that is equivalent to the first mode. During the onset of the El Niño event the inclusion of higher modes also produces a more realistic representation of the observed eastern boundary sea level signal. Furthermore, by comparing the model response to particular wind bursts with the observed sea level at Baltra, Galapagos, a value of 2.5–2.6 m/s is suggested as the most appropriate mean speed for the first internal mode Kelvin wave during the onset phase. The models reveal the following scenario for the onset of the 1991–1992 El Niño. The eastern boundary sea level exhibited three, distinct pulselike events superimposed on a general rise; the observed sea level pulses occurred in October–November, December–January, and February. The numerical simulations indicate that the pulses in December–January and February were the result of three powerful, westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific preceded by westerly anomalies in the central Pacific. The Kelvin wave pulse generated in the western Pacific by the wind burst in late December to early January was reinforced by a strong central Pacific westerly wind anomaly in mid‐January. These westerly wind events were associated with the development of western Pacific tropical cyclones near the equator in one or both hemispheres.