The occupation of cropland by global urban expansion from 1992 to 2016 and its implications

Abstract

Large-scale urban expansion worldwide has exerted great impacts on cropland and its net primary productivity (NPP), which can affect whether food security and sustainable development goals will be met at global and local scales. Although important, the impacts at the global scale over the last 25 years remain unclear. Based on the latest long-term dynamic urban expansion data, this study analyzed global urban expansion and its impacts on cropland NPP from 1992 to 2016 at multiple scales. The results showed that the expansion of urban land occupied a total of 159 170 km2 of cropland, accounting for 45.9% of the total expanded urban area. The cropland NPP decreased by 58.71 (56.52 ∼ 59.81, 95% confidence interval) TgC as a result of urban expansion, which represents approximately 0.42% (0.40% ∼ 0.43%) of the multiyear average of total cropland NPP from 2000 to 2015. If the cropland NPP losses were converted to the grain production (i.e. 1.44 × 107 tons), it is equivalent to the minimum annual food intake demands for at least 36 million people. More importantly, urban expansion is exacerbating the risk of food security in developing countries in Asia and Africa, such as China, Vietnam and Egypt. In the future, these countries should balance urban expansion with cropland protection by strictly restricting the occupation of cropland and encouraging smart urban growth.