The Observed Relationship between Pacific SST Variability and Hadley Cell Extent Trends in Reanalyses

Abstract

AbstractReanalysis and other observationally based estimates suggest that the tropics have expanded more than simulated by coupled climate models with historical radiative forcing. Previous research has attempted to reconcile this discrepancy by using climate model simulations with constrained tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to account for the role of internal variability. Here the relationships between Hadley cell extent and internal SST variability and long-term warming are analyzed using purely observational techniques. Using linearly independent components of SST variability with reanalysis datasets, the statistical relationship between Pacific variability and Hadley cell extent is quantified by time scale. There is a strong correlation between North Pacific decadal SST variability and Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell extent. Conversely, there is a weaker observed relation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Hadley cell extent when low-frequency variability is filtered out of the ENSO signal. The observed linear sensitivity of Hadley cell width to long-term warming agrees with coupled general circulation model experiments when accounting for uncertainties, and there is a statistically significant relationship between Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell extent and long-term warming during boreal autumn.