The Number of Chinese International Airlines Forecasting Based on Grey Model Using Fuzzy Adaptive PSO Algorithm

Abstract

Nowadays, owing to the accelerated growth in the development of information technology, the aviation industry plays a prominent role in Chinese economy. Therefore, the accurate prediction for the number of international airlines helps in making major decisions in technological reform. In order to analyze the number of international airlines in China efficiently, in this paper, fuzzy adaptive PSO algorithm is proposed to choose the parameters of a GM(1,1) Grey forecasting model automatically in the prediction of the number of international airlines. It possess the merits of both simplicity of application and high forecasting precision. This paper was based on historical data of the number of Chinese international airlines from 1985 to 2003, and forecasted and analyzed the international airlines in China by the novel GM(1,1) Grey forecasting model. The results provide scientific basis for the making major decisions in technological reform in China.