The NPT: Coping with the Best and Worst Cases

Abstract

The future of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is still uncertain, despite the decision in May 1995 by 175 countries to extend the Treaty indefinitely. Uncertainty about the prospects for the NPT stem from the fact that we do not know if we are entering an era of peace and cooperation, or one of conflict and confrontation. In either case, the NPT will continue to be the corner-stone of the non-proliferation regime. The demise of the NPT would spell disaster for international non-proliferation policies. It would be fatal for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and its safeguards system. It would unravel multilateral export control agreements, dash hopes for United Nations enforcement of non-proliferation, and cripple the non-proliferation norm. In short, a weakening of respect for the NPT by its parties would destroy the basis for cooperative international non-proliferation policies. The collapse of the non-proliferation regime could even undermine the norm of non-use which has prevailed since the last nuclear weapon was used in war on August 9, 1945.