The Not so Hard Line? Re-Examining Conservatism in the Cuban American Electorate

Abstract

Recent accounts describe Miami's Cuban Americans as a group that is on the verge of voting Democratic. In Miami Dade, however, Cubans with the most progressive views are least able and likely to participate. This paper examines the behavior and attitudes of the Miami Dade's Cuban American voting electorate using data from a 2004 Miami Dade County exit poll of voters. Contrary to media portrayals, Miami's Cubans are neither about to turn blue nor are they monolithic demagogues for the hard line. Instead, we find that on questions pertaining to political behavior and US foreign policy toward Cuba, the voting electorate is very conservative. On social issues, however, Cuban American voters are liberal in both relative and absolute terms. Moreover, Cuban American women are even more extreme on both accounts than are men. These results suggest that changes in the Cuban American community's voting patterns are not likely to occur until issues of US policy toward the Castro regime are resolved as recent, more progressive, immigrants are entering the electorate too slowly to shift the outcome of elections in the near future.