The Northeastern Triangle: Libya, Egypt, and the Sudan

Abstract

The Triangle may be viewed as a regional subsystem articulating power relationships between core and periphery. The core can be seen as an unevenly weighted dumbbell consisting of Cairo and Khartoum connected by the Nile. The periphery consists of Libya and the upper reaches of the Nile that escape the control of the Egyptian and Sudanese governments. The challenge to this regional subsystem is that Libya, with help from the other peripherals, might grab the dumbbell. Under modern conditions, established states usually dominate their peripheries, although energetic peripheries can budge inert centers. Two attempted coups against Qaddafi in March 1985 reflected serious dissension within his military establishment. Since then overt U.S. actions against Libya have strengthened Qaddafi's regime at home and in the region. Dysfunctional U.S. policies, coupled with a deteriorating Egyptian economy, could precipitate a Nasserite, anti-American coup in Egypt and dramatic regional realignments.