The North of the South: The Geopolitical Implications of “Pacific Consensus” in South America and the Brazilian Dilemma

Abstract

This article analyzes the geopolitical implications of the growing economic interdependence between the People's Republic of China and South America, especially Brazil. Presenting data on China's trade and investment and highlighting the advances in diplomatic bilateral cooperation during the 21st century, it focuses on two main questions: Would the China–South America relationship constitute a new pattern of south–south cooperation or a new type of north–south relationship? What role does Brazil play in this scenario? Although China stimulates South American economic growth, what are the geopolitical implications for Brazil, as a regional power, in two specific strategic points: as an industrialized country affected by the competition of Chinese products and as a leader of the South American integration process with The Southern Market (Mercosur) and the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR)? Our hypothesis is that the evolution and dynamics of this relationship are more akin to a center–periphery standard, with special characteristics, which we call Pacific Consensus. A second hypothesis is that, although the growing economic penetration of China in the Southern Hemisphere benefits macroeconomic indicators and economic growth, it challenges the Brazilian strategic geopolitical position, creating a complex dilemma.