Abstract

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) studies consistently show that CSF levels of amyloid-beta 1–42 (Aβ42) are reduced and tau levels increased prior to the onset of cognitive decline related to Alzheimer’s disease (AD). However, the preclinical prediction accuracy for low CSF Aβ42 levels, a surrogate for brain Aβ42 deposits, is not high. Moreover, the pathology data suggests a course initiated by tauopathy contradicting the contemporary clinical view of an Aβ initiated cascade. CSF Aβ42 and tau data from 3 normal aging cohorts (45–90 years) were combined to test both cross-sectional (n = 766) and longitudinal (n = 651) hypotheses: 1) that the relationship between CSF levels of Aβ42 and tau are not linear over the adult life-span; and 2) that non-linear models improve the prediction of cognitive decline. Supporting the hypotheses, the results showed that a u-shaped quadratic fit (Aβ2) best describes the relationship for CSF Aβ42 with CSF tau levels. Furthermore we found that the relationship between Aβ42 and tau changes with age—between 45 and 70 years there is a positive linear association, whereas between 71 and 90 years there is a negative linear association between Aβ42 and tau. The quadratic effect appears to be unique to Aβ42, as Aβ38 and Aβ40 showed only positive linear relationships with age and CSF tau. Importantly, we observed the prediction of cognitive decline was improved by considering both high and low levels of Aβ42. Overall, these data suggest an earlier preclinical stage than currently appreciated, marked by CSF elevations in tau and accompanied by either elevations or reductions in Aβ42. Future studies are needed to examine potential mechanisms such as failing CSF clearance as a common factor elevating CSF Aβxx analyte levels prior to Aβ42 deposition in brain.

Highlights

  • Improved biomarker characterization during the presymptomatic stages of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is necessary to adequately assess the risk for cognitive decline and optimize interventions

  • Aβ42 was platykurtic with a high degree of negative excess kurtosis (NYU: kurtosis = -.54; Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI): kurtosis = -.99; National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center (NACC): kurtosis = -.32)

  • We observed the quadratic Aβ42 term (Aβ2) was superior to the linear Aβ42 term as a predictor of future clinical decline, an effect most pronounced in younger subjects

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Summary

Introduction

Improved biomarker characterization during the presymptomatic stages of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is necessary to adequately assess the risk for cognitive decline and optimize interventions. It is widely believed that in elderly at risk for AD, reductions in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of amyloid beta 1–42 (Aβ42), which are associated with brain amyloid deposition [1,2], precede elevations in CSF tau levels, a marker of neurodegeneration [3] Support for this sequence of CSF biomarker changes comes from preclinical studies showing that lower CSF Aβ42 levels predict cognitive decline [4,5]. Offering a clue to this discrepancy, transgenic animal models show CSF Aβ42 elevations occur prior to Aβ42 reductions and brain deposition [11], a trend seen in early onset AD [12,13] We reasoned that these divergent human aging findings could be explained by under sampling a non-linear Aβ42 trajectory with the added complexity of non-standardized cohorts. For CSF Aβ38 or Aβ40, only linear relationships were found with age and tau levels; and 2) the cross-sectional and longitudinal results confirm the hypothesis that elevated Aβ42 levels contribute to the prediction of future cognitive decline

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