The Nonlinear Effect of Population Aging and Socio-economic Conditions on Carbon Emission: An Empirical Analysis of 30 Provinces and Regions in China

Abstract

The central aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of population aging on carbon emissions in China. In order to attain a deeper comprehension of this effect, this study investigates the non-linear relationship between population aging and carbon emissions through empirical analysis of 30 provinces and regions in China from 1997 to 2019 using a panel threshold model. Our primary research findings indicate that the correlation between population aging and carbon emissions demonstrates nonlinearity. Population aging has had an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions; however, as the aging population continues to increase, its effect on suppressing carbon emissions will weaken. Moreover, we have also uncovered non-linear relationships between energy intensity, per capita GDP, industrial structure, and carbon emissions. Notably, despite rapid growth in total fossil energy consumption, energy intensity has shown a decreasing trend in China, which has mitigated the upsurge in carbon emissions attributed to fluctuations in energy intensity. The positive correlation between GDP per capita and carbon emissions is evident, but there is little variation observed across different threshold levels. Finally, the relationship between industrial structure and carbon emissions is considerably intricate, our results show that a U-shaped curvilinear relationship exists between the two variables.